Self-Sorting

 

An interesting phenomenon taking place in the U.S. today is how the electorate is self-sorting, and one way to look at this is to examine how counties vote. There are roughly 3,100 counties, and they are interesting because their boundaries do not change.

Consider: in 1980, only 391 counties (12.5 %) were won by a landslide, meaning by more than 20%. By 2024, the percentage won by a landslide increased to 80.2%. In other words, we are self-sorting, red versus blue, into the places we live. The folks who study this phenomenon say it reflects “educational polarization.” People with college degrees tend to cluster in large city suburbs and college towns on either the East or West coast, and they tend to vote Democrat. Working-class people cluster in the South and Midwest and tend to vote Republican.

One way to predict how a county will vote in presidential elections is to determine if it is a Whole Foods county or a Cracker Barrel county. Counties where a Whole Foods Market is present tend to vote for the Democratic candidate, while counties with a Cracker Barrel franchise tend to vote Republican. In 2020, Joe Biden won 85% of Whole Foods counties and 31% of Cracker Barrel counties. In 2024, Donald Trump won 22% of Whole Foods and 74% of Cracker Barrel. (See the table below.)

This idea of self-sorting troubled me. One night this past weekend, I fell into a restless sleep, and my father came to me in a dream. He looked pretty good for a man who passed in 1958 and would have been 132 years old this year. I brought him up to date on the family news, but then his brow furrowed and he grew very serious.

“Charlie, something is bothering me,” he said. “Is it true you live in a Whole Foods county?”

“Yeah, Dad, it’s right down the street, though I didn’t know that when I bought the place.”

“Son, you know we are Cracker Barrel people. Working class through and through. Remember the lesson I taught you—a working man only has two things going for him, his union and the Democratic party.”

“But, Dad, you don’t understand. People in Whole Foods counties tend to vote Democrat, and people in Cracker Barrel counties typically vote Republican.”

“What?! How the heck did that happen? Whole Foods Democrats and Cracker Barrel Republicans? It makes no sense to me.”

“Well, sorry to say this, Dad, but it turns out the working-class folks switched sides. They felt abandoned by the Democrats.”

“That’s a bitter pill! I was a twenty-year Navy vet and a proud union member, Boilermakers’ local, AFL-CIO. Never crossed a picket line and never voted for a Republican in my lifetime.”

I tried to change the subject and cheer him up a little. I didn’t have the heart to tell him it’s hard to find a Made in the U.S.A. label on anything these days. The shipyards are gone, as are the steel mills, and the domestic car companies teeter on the brink. And I certainly wasn’t going to tell him I’ve been driving Hondas for years now.

I let him fade away, shaking his head over the idea of Cracker Barrel Republicans. Deep in the background of my dream, Bob Dylan was singing, “The Times They Are A-Changin’.”

 

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